Demis Hassabis: Agents, AGI & The Next Big Scientific Breakthrough

以下内容是YouTube平台的Y Combinator频道的《Demis Hassabis: Agents, AGI & The Next Big Scientific Breakthrough》（原始视频链接：https://youtu.be/JNyuX1zoOgU?si=Tb-2ZXa71hiFLhq3）的文字稿全文内容（语音转文字生成的）： continual learning long-term reasoning uh some aspects of memory these are still unsolved I think all of these are going to be required for AGI Depending on what your AGI timeline is you know mine's like 2030 or something like this then if you start off on a deep tech journey today you have to just consider AGI appearing in the middle of that journey It's not bad necessarily but you have to take that into account you have to have an active system uh that can actively solve problems for you to get to AGI So agents are that path and I think we're just getting going Deis Habis has had one of the most unusual careers in tech He was a chess prodigy as a kid then designed his first hit video game theme park at 17 He then went back to school got a PhD in cognitive neuroscience published foundational work on how memory and imagination work in the brain and then in 2010 co-founded Deep Mind with one mission solve intelligence And I think they've done it Uh since then uh his lab has gone on to do things most people thought were decades away Alph Go beat a world champion at Go Alpha Fold cracked protein structure prediction a 50-year grand challenge in biology and they gave it away for free to every scientist on Earth That work won him the Nobel Prize in chemistry last year Today Deis leads Google DeepMind where he's building Gemini and pushing toward the same goal he set when he was a teenager artificial general intelligence Please welcome Demis So you've been thinking about AGI longer than almost anyone Uh when you look at the current paradigm large scale pre-training RLHF chain of thought how much of the final architecture for AGI do you think we already have and what's fundamentally missing right now Well first of all thank thanks Gary for that great introduction and it's great to be here Thanks for for welcoming me here It's amazing space actually I'm going have to come back here often very inspiring that you will get to work in in in this space So the question is I think the the components that you just mentioned I'm pretty sure will be part of the final architecture for AGI So I think they've come such a long way now uh and we've proven out so many things about what they can do U I can't see a world in which we will sort of realize in a couple of years this was a dead end That doesn't make sense to me But there still might be one or two things missing on top of uh of of of what you've you know what we already know works So um continual learning long-term reasoning uh some aspects of memory these are still unsolved Um and how to get the systems to be more consistent across the board Um I think all of these are going to be required for AGI Now it might be that the existing techniques can just scale up to that with some innovation and some incremental innovation Um but it could be that there's still one or two big ideas left uh that need to be cracked I don't think it's more than one or two if there are out there And I think you know my betting is uh about 50/50 if that's the case So of course at Deep Mind at Google Deep Mind we work on both those things I guess that's I mean working with a bunch of aentic systems the wildest thing to me is to what degree it's the same weights over and over So this idea of continual learning is so interesting because like you know right now we're sort of cobbling it together with duct tape you know these dream cycles at night and things like that Yeah it's pretty cool the dream cycles and we we used to think about this with consolidation with episodic memories Actually that's what I studied for my PhD is how the hippocampus works and integrates you know new knowledge gracefully into the existing knowledge base So the brain does that amazingly well It it it does it you know during sleep uh especially things like REM sleep replaying back episodes that that are important so that you can learn from it In fact our very first Atari program DQN one of the ways it was able to master Atari games was by doing experience replay So we sort of borrowed that from from neuroscience and replayed successful trajectories uh many times you know that's way back in 2013 now in the in the dark ages of AI it was uh a really important thing and and I agree with you we're kind of using duct tape right now so like shove it all in the context window um this but this seems a bit unsatisfying right and actually even though uh we're working on machines not biological brains and so potentially you could have you know millions or tens of millions context window or memory and it can be perfect There's still a cost to looking it up and finding the right thing uh that that's actually relevant for the specific uh decision you've got to make right now And that's non-trivial that cost even if you can potentially store it all I think there's actually a lot of room for innovation in in areas like memory Yeah I mean the wild thing is it feels like a million token context ones is actually bigger than I mean it's plenty big honestly you can do so Well it's it's it's plenty big for for for most things that it should be used for I mean if you think about the context window is sort of equivalent to working memory you know humans have we have like a few digits you know it's like a dozen digits maybe you know average of seven We got million or you know 10 million context windows But the problem is is that we're trying to store everything in that You know things that are not important things that are wrong is pretty brute force currently and that doesn't seem uh right And then the problem is if you're now trying to try and process live video and you're just going to naively record all the tokens then actually a million tokens isn't that much It's only like 20 minutes So actually you need more if you want something that's going to understand your you know your what's going on in your life over maybe a month or two Deep Mind has historically leaned into reinforcement learning and search uh Alph Go Alpha Zero and Muse Uh how much of that philosophy is actually embedded in how you're building Gemini today Uh is RL still underrated Yeah I think potentially it is It sort of goes in in ES and waves We know we've worked on agents since the beginning of DeepMind In fact we al that's what we said we were working on So all of the Atari work and Alph Go most specifically they're agent systems and what we meant by that is systems that are able to you know accomplish goals on their own uh and make active decisions and and make plans and so of course we were doing it in the domain of games to to to make it tractable uh and then doing increasingly complex games things like Starcraft after Alph Go Alpha Star So um we basically did all the games that were out there Um and then of course the question is can you generalize those models to be world models or models of language not just models of simple games or even complex games And that's what the last few years has been about But really you can think of a lot of the things we're doing today all the leading models with thinking modes and chain of thought reasoning as aspects of what was sort of pioneered with Alph Go coming back now And I actually think there's a lot of work we did back then that is relevant today and we're sort of relooking at some of those old ideas um at scale today in a more general way including things like Monte Carlo research and other other ways of doing augmenting the RL uh on top of the the reinforcement learning we're ready to do today And I think a lot of those ideas both from Alph Go and Alpha Zero are really really relevant uh to where we are with today's foundation models And I think uh a lot of that is what we're going to see of the advances the next few years One question I would have like obviously today you need bigger and bigger models to be smarter and smarter but then we're also seeing distillation working and then smaller models can be like quite a bit faster I think you know you guys have incredible flash models that are like n like you're finding that they're 95% as good as uh the Frontier and at like onetenth the price Is that right I think that's one of our core strengths is I mean you have to build the biggest models to to to to have uh the frontier capabilities But I think one of our biggest strengths has been uh distilling and packing that power into smaller and smaller models very quickly Obviously we we you know we invented the kind of distillation process and and people like Jeff and Oral and and others and we're still world experts in that and we also have a huge need to uh do it because we've got to serve the biggest probably AI surfaces um there are obviously there's search with AI overviews and AI mode then there's Gemini app and now increasingly every single product at Google has you know maps and YouTube and so on has some aspect ect of Gemini or Gemini related technology in it and so that's billions of users a dozen more than a dozen billion user products um and they have to be served extremely fast extremely efficiently and cheaply and with low latency so that that gives us a really important incentive to to make these flash and even smaller models flashlight models uh extremely efficient and hopefully that ends up then being really useful for many of the workloads that all of you use for I'm curious about how much smarter these smaller models can actually be Like are there limits to the distillation process Like could a 50b or 400B model be as smart as like a mythos for today Yeah I don't I don't see any I don't think we've got to any kind of or at least none of us know yet if we've got to any kind of informationational limit I mean maybe at some point that will be the case where there's just an information density that can't we can't get beyond But I think for now there's that the assumption we make is that you know a year later after one of our uh leading you know pro models or frontier models goes out half a year later a year later you'll have them in the the really tiny almost edge models and you also see some of that goodness in our Gemma models which hopefully you're all enjoying our Gemma 4 models which I think are really amazing power for their sizes So again that uses a lot of this uh these distillation techniques and and the idea of how to make things really efficient in these very small models So I don't really see any limit yet in terms of like some kind of theoretical limit I think we're still pretty far off of that That's amaz I mean that is really good because uh you know one of the weirder things that we're seeing right now is like engineers can do like 500 to a,000 times the amount of work that they were doing like six months ago I guess I mean the people in this room there are people who are doing about like a thousandx the work that like I Steve Yaggi talks about this it's like a thousandx the work that a Google engineer from the 2000s was doing I think it's very exciting I mean I think the small models have many uses One is obviously cost but the speed can allow you know if you think about coding even or other things you can iterate a lot faster also especially if there's if you're collaborating with the system I think there's a there's a a lot of need for having fast systems um that maybe are not quite front tier like you said like 95% 90% but that's plenty good enough and actually you gain back more than the 10% on the the iteration speed So and then the other big thing I think is running these things on the edge again for efficiency reasons but also for privacy and security reasons too Um if you think about different devices that you might run these systems on that per that you know process very personal information you can also think about robotics as well um you know robots in your house I think you're going to want very efficient uh very powerful uh local models which maybe are orchestrated you know with some bigger models frontier models that in the in the cloud but you only delegate to that in certain circumstances and perhaps you you know you process all of the audio a visual feed let's say locally and that stays local I could imagine uh that would be a very good sort of um end state YC starter school is back We're hand selecting the most promising builders in the world and flying them out to San Francisco for July 25th and 26th to discuss the cutting edge of tech Apply now for a spot Okay back to the video Going back to context and memory models currently stateless but you know continue like what would the developer experience even be like for someone who's using a continual learning model like you know any idea like how you'd steer it I think it's really interesting I think that's one of the not having continual learning currently is one of the things holding back agents from doing full uh tasks You know I think they're really useful for aspects of tasks right now And you can patch them together and do some really cool things but they don't adapt well with the context that you're in And I think that's the missing piece from them being really kind of fire and forget and they'll figure it out themselves You know I think they need to be able to learn um about the specific context um that you're going to put them in So um I think we have to crack that to get full general intelligence Where are we on reasoning So models can do really impressive chain of thought now but they still fail on things a smart undergrad wouldn't What specifically needs to change and what progress do you expect in reasoning There's a lot of uh innovation left in in thinking paradigms I would say again I think we're fairly we're doing fairly simplistic things fairly brute force um one could imagine uh I think there's a lot of scope for example in monitoring the chain of thought maybe interjecting midway through a thought process I often get the impression with our systems and and our competitor systems that they're almost overthinking they're almost getting into sort of loops of things like one thing uh I sometimes like to do is is play chess against Gemini and you know it's that all the leading foundation models are pretty poor at games which is quite interesting it's very uh uh uh cool to kind of look at the thinking traces because obviously these are can be a well understood you know I can tell quite quickly if it's going off on a tangent and it's very sort of provable what the what the the thinking is doing whether it's useful or not and so what we see is that you know sometimes it will it will it will consider a move it will realize it's a blunder but it can't find anything better so it kind of goes back to that move and does it anyway so you know you just shouldn't be seeing that uh happening in a in a very precise reasoning system So there's just sort of huge gaps I think still but it may only be one or two tweaks that are required to fix those kind of gaps just to be clear But I think that's pretty pretty obvious there are there And that's why you get this kind of jagged intelligence You know on the one hand it can solve gold medal problems in IMO which is super hard but on the other hand as we've all seen it can still make basic elementary maths errors if you pose the question in a certain way right So or elementary reasoning errors So there's just something to me about the almost an introspection about its own thought process that I feel like there's there's something maybe missing there Agents are really big Some would say they're hyped I personally think they're just getting started It's totally insane What does DeepMind's internal research tell you about where agent capabilities actually are right now versus you know sort of the hype out there I think we are I agree with you I think we're just at the beginning You have to have an active system uh that can actively solve problems for you to get to AGI That was always clear to us So agents are that path and I think we're just getting going I think all of us are getting used to how do we best work and you're leading the way in a lot of this in your own personal experiments I'm sure many of you are doing that I think how do you incorporate it into your uh workflow in a way that isn't just um sort of a nice to have but actually starting to do fundamental things My impression is at the moment we're all exper you know we're experimenting on lots of things but we're only in the maybe the last couple of months starting to find the really valuable places and the technology is probably only getting good enough for that to be the case right That it's not a kind of toy um nice demonstration but actually really adding value to your to your um to your time and efficiency Um I often wonder I see a lot of people working on uh like setting off you know dozens of agents for like 40 hours but I'm not sure I've seen the output that yet of that quite justify that level of input going in but I I think it will come So I still think we're in the experimentation phase We haven't seen a AAA game that tops the app store charts that was sort of vibe coded yet right I've seen and I've programmed and I'm sure many we've all done little nice demonstrations and it's like amazing I can do a prototype of theme park in half an hour now which took me 6 months back when I was 17 It's kind of mind-blowing and I and I wish I I got this feeling if I spent the whole summer working on it you could make something really incredible but it still needs craft and you know human sort of soul into it and taste I think that's that's something that can that's you have to make sure you still bring that to to whatever it is you're building And I think it still shows like it's not quite there yet because why haven't we seen a kid making a hit game that's that sells 10 million copies right That should be possible given the effort that's gone in So something's still somehow missing Maybe it's to do with the process or maybe it's to do with the tools I'm not quite sure You all will probably know better than me because I'm sure you're all experimenting on that I haven't seen the result yet which I would expect once this is really delivering that full value which I think will come in the next 6 to 12 months Some of it is like how much of it will be autonomous versus I mean I don't think we'd see autonomous first we would actually probably see people in this room operating at a 1000x and then that's what you should see first and then many of you you know there'll be like games companies or you know other types of companies that have built some kind of bestselling app bestselling game using uh these tools that's what you should see first and then more of that will get automated I mean some of it is like there's a human in there and then the human doesn't want to say that the the the agents did it yet I I think part of it might be though that um this if we want to discuss like creativity what I often say about that is like if we look at the things we've done like Alph Go so obviously very famously you'll all know about the move 37 in game 2 and for me I was waiting for a moment like that to start the science projects like Alpha Fold So we started Alpha Fold like the day we got back from soul which is 10 years ago now that I'm going to Korea after this to celebrate the 10year anniversary of Alph Go But it's not enough to come up with MOU 37 Like that's pretty cool very useful Um but can it invent go That's what I I want a system that can invent go if you give it a highle description you know like a game you can learn the rules of in 5 minutes but it takes many lifetimes to master It's beautiful aesthetically Um but you can play it in a few hours in an afternoon So you know maybe you could imagine that would be the highle description I would give And then I'd want the the return the thing I get back is go right And um clearly today's systems I think can't do that So the question is why um and I think there's something still missing there Well someone in this room might might make it Then the answer would be there's nothing missing It just was the way we were using the systems And that might actually be the answer It might be that our today's systems are capable of that with a brilliant enough creative person using it and providing that impetus that the soul of the project and being able to probably being offay enough with the tools to like almost be at one with the tools I could imagine that would be happening if you experimented with the tools all day and all night like probably many of you are doing that and you combine that with proper deep creativity um something you know more incredible could be done Switching gears to open source I mean or open open and open open weights I mean the recent release of Gemma you're making highly capable open and accessible ones that can actually run locally What do you think that means for you will AI be something that is in the hands of the users instead of primarily in the cloud and does that change who gets to you know build with these models We're huge proponents of in general of open source and open science and you mentioned Alpha Fold at the beginning You know we put that all out there for free and all of our science work even still today we publish in you know the big journals We wanted to create uh worldleading models for their their sizes right And so that's what hopefully we've done with Gemma and we're you know very committed to that path and hopefully you all experiment and build and enjoy using Gemma I think it's been like 40 million downloads now and uh just in you know two and a half weeks So we're really excited about that And I also think it's important for there to be Western stacks on open source You know obviously a lot of the Chinese models are excellent and and they're currently were leading in open source and we think Gemma is very competitive for its sizes uh uh in in all those respects And for us I mean there is a question of resources talent and compute like nobody has enough spare compute to just make two you know uh frontier models at maximum size right with different attributes So that's pretty difficult but also what for now what we we've decided is that our edge models the things we want to use for Android and glasses and robotics um it's best that they're open models because they're vulnerable anyway on the surf once you put them out on the surfaces So they might as well be actually fully open right So we've sort of made a decision to kind of unify that uh at the at the kind of we call it nano size level So that actually works for us uh strategically as well Um and you know we hope as many people as possible build on it and of course we'll be building on that too Earlier uh before we came on I got to show you a demo of uh my version of Samantha from her which is uh harrowing for me to try to demo something to you very um and it worked which is amazing Gemini was built multimodal and I spent a lot of time with a bunch of the models and I mean the depth of the context and the tool use with speech directly to model like there's nothing like bar none like the best one actually Yeah Yeah I think I think that's a sort of still a slightly underappreciated aspect of of of the Gemini series is we we started it being multimodal from the start that made it a little bit more difficult actually to begin with because than just focusing on text for example but we believe we're going to gain from that in the long run and I think we're seeing that now for uh uh things like world model building so stuff like Genie that we build on top of Gemini I think it's going to be really important for things like robotics so this is why Gemini robotics which many of you probably played around with I think it's going to be built on multimodal foundation models the robotics models and we think we have a sort of competitive of advantage with with Gemini being so strong at multimodal we're using it increasingly in things like Whimo um but also if you imagine devices and assistants uh that digital assistants that come with you into the real world you know maybe on your phone or glasses or some other device um it needs to understand the physical world around you and intuitive physics uh and and the and the physical context you're in and that's what our systems are extremely good at and I think you found that's why you've enjoyed using it in your setup We're planning to continue on that and I think we're far and away the strongest models on on those types of uh problems So the cost of inference is uh dropping fast What becomes possible when inference is essentially free and how does that change what your team is actually optimizing for Yeah I'm not sure inference will ever be essentially free I mean there's sort of Jevron's paradox and other things about like I think we'll just end up using all of us will end up using whatever we can get our hands on and you could imagine uh millions of agents swarms of agents working together on things That's one way to use the inference or you could imagine uh single agents or groups smaller groups of agents thinking for in multiple directions and then ensembling that So we're experimenting with all these things probably many of you are All of that will use up any inference I think that's available I mean one day maybe it can be almost cost zero Certainly the energy if we solve fusion or you know superconductors or you know optimal batteries or some set of those things which I think we will do with material science energy costs will be essentially zero but there'll still be the physical creation of the chips and other things There some there'll be some bottleneck um at least for the next few decades I think And so if that's the case they'll still be rationing on the inference side They'll still have to use it I think efficiently Yeah Well luckily the smaller models are getting smarter and smarter which is fantastic Uh we got a lot of bio and biotech founders in the audience I can see a few Alpha 3 took us beyond proteins to a broad spectrum of biomolelecules Uh how close are we to modeling full cellular systems or is that still a fundamentally harder problem in a class of its own Well Isomorphic Labs which we spun out from from from from Deep Mind after we did Alpha Fold 2 um it's it's which is going amazingly well It's it's it's trying to build out uh not just AlphaFold it's just one piece of the drug discovery process uh as many of you know but we're trying to do the the adjacent biochemistry and chemistry to design the right compounds with the right properties and so on We'll have some big announcements you know very soon to talk about on on that front I think that's going really well Eventually you want a whole virtual cell So I've talked about this in many of my science talks about a full working simulation of a cell that you can perturb and then the you know the the outputs of that would be close enough to experimental that it's useful right You could skip out a lot of the the search steps and generate lots of synthetic data to train other models that then would predict things about you know real cells And um I think we're about 10 years away probably from something like a virtual cell like a full virtual cell You know we're starting out this is we're working on the deep mind side science side on a you know virtual nucleus cell nucleus first because it's relatively self-contained The trick with all of these things is can you pick a slice of the complexity you know eventually want to want to model a human body but can you model it down to the right level of detail and what slice can you uh take out of it that will be self-contained enough You can kind of model and approximate the inputs and outputs into that self-contained system and then just focus on the self-contained system So a nucleus is quite interesting from that perspective Um then the other issue is just there's not enough data yet So you need data uh and I talked to various you know top scientists about who work on electron microscopes and other imaging things If we could image a live cell without killing the cell that would be um gamechanging obviously because then you could convert it into a vision problem which we would know how to solve right but at the moment there are at least I I'm not aware of any techniques that can give you a kind of you know nanometer resolution uh but without destroying but in you know in a live dynamic cell so you can see all the interactions right you can take static images at that resolution obviously um really detailed now and that's quite exciting setting but it's not enough uh to turn it just into uh just into a complex vision problem So that's one way it could be solved So it could be a hardware driven datadriven solution or it could be that we build better uh learned simulators of uh these dynamical systems So that's that's the more modeling way of solving it Uh you've been looking at all kinds of science not just bio Uh there's material science drug discovery climate modeling mathematics If you had to rank which scientific domain will transform the most dramatically the next five years what's in your list Well they're all so exciting and that's why I mean that that for me has been my main passion and always the reason why I've worked on AI for my whole career for 30 plus years now is to use AI as the ultimate tool I always thought AI would be the ultimate tool for science and to envir advance scientific understanding scientific discovery and things like medicine and just our understanding of the universe around us So actually when you mentioned our original way we used to articulate our mission statement which is still uh the way we think about it is there was two steps to it One was step one was solve intelligence i.e build AGI and then step two was use it to solve everything else We had to change that a bit over time because people were like do you really mean solve everything else and we did mean that and I think people are sort of understanding what that means today but specifically I was meaning solve other what I call root node problems in science So areas of science that would unlock whole new branches or avenues of discovery and Alphafold is the prototypical example of what we want to do So over three million researchers around the world pretty much every biology researcher in the world uh uses AlphaFold now And I was told by some of my you know pharma executive friends that you know almost every drug discovered from now on will have used AlphaFold at some point in it in the drug discovery process So that's something we're very proud of and it's the sort of impact that we hope to have with with AI but I do think it's just the beginning Uh I I don't really see any area of science or engineering that this won't be able to help be helpful with And the ones you mentioned I think we're at almost like an AlphaFold one moment So it's we've got very promising results but it's not quite solved the the grand challenge yet in that domain But I think we're going to have a lot to talk about in the next couple years on all those areas You mentioned materials which I I think is very exciting all the way to mathematics in in science I mean it feels prometheian It's like here is this capability and you know I think so I mean of course along with that in including what the the the parable of Prometheus we have to also be careful with how we use that and what we use it for and also the misuse uh that can happen with those same tools A lot of people in this room are trying to build companies applying AI to science for them What's the difference between a startup that actually advances the frontier in your view versus one that's just wrapping an API around a foundation model and calling it AI for science Well look I think there's one of the things I would recommend I'm trying to think about and I think you mentioned this to me before What would I do today myself if I was sitting in your place in Y Cominator you know looking at things One thing you have to do is obviously intercept where the AI tech is going So that's one hard part of it But I do think there's huge uh scope for combining where AI is going with some other deep technology area I just think that that sweet spot is is whether it's materials or medicine or other really hard areas of science Um I think that those kinds of interdicciplinary teams especially if it involves the world of atoms as well um there's not going to be a shortcut to that at least in the foreseeable future Those are areas that are pretty safe from just getting swarmed by whatever the next update is to the foundation models So I think if you're looking for things like that that's one of the more defensible areas I would say And I've always loved deep tech so I'm kind of biased towards deep tech things I think um nothing that's really long lasting and worthwhile is easy And so I'm always being drawn to to deep technologies Obviously AI was like that back in 2010 when we started out right It was it was thought to just we know we know it doesn't work kind of thing is what I was told by investors and even in academia it was considered to be a very niche subject that we sort of tried in the '9s and we know doesn't work but if you you know if you have belief and conviction in your idea why it's different this time or what special combination from your background that you had ideally you're expert in both those areas both the machine learning and the other area you're applying it to or you can create a founding team with that expertise I think there's huge impact to be made there and huge value to be built there That's a really important message I mean even I mean it's it's easy to forget like basically once you've done it you've done it But before you've done it people are a raid against you Oh sure I mean no one believes in it Which is why I think you got to you've also got to work in things that you're genuinely passionate about Like for me I would have worked on AI no matter what happened I just decided from a very young age it was the thing that um could be the most consequential thing I could think of It's turned out that way but it might not Maybe we would have been 50 years too early And it was also the most interesting thing I could think of working on And so I would still be working on AI today even if we were still you know in a little garage somewhere and it still wasn't quite working I would have still been trying to find maybe I'd have been back in academia or something but I would have found some way of of continuing to work on it So I mean alphaold was like an example of a spike that you pursued and it worked You know what makes the scientific domain ripe for an alphafold style breakthrough and is there a pattern a certain objective function Like the way I I should write this up at some point when I have five minutes spare But the lesson I've learned from all the alpha projects we've done specifically alpha go and alpha fold is um I think the techniques we have and the problems I look like to look for are great in if this if the situation can be described as massive combinatorial search space The more massive the better in some ways So no brute force or special case algorithm will will solve it And that's true of go moves and of you know different configurations of proteins far more than the atoms in the universe both of those And then u you have a clear objective function So you know you could think of it as minimizing the free energy in the proteins or you know the winning the game of go So you need to be you specify your objective function clearly so you can hill climb and then um enough data andor a simulator that can generate you uh lots of uh indistribution uh uh sim synthetic data If those things are true then I think um with today's methods you can go a long way into tackling and finding the kind of needle in the hay stack that you need uh to for the solution that you're trying to look for And I think of just drug discovery by the way in the same way right there is a compound out there that would solve this disease if one could find it if one could only find it right and that wouldn't have any side effects and so on and as long as the laws of physics allows it then the only question is how do you find it in an efficient way in a tractable way I think we showed for the first time actually with alpho that these systems could uh find those kinds of needles in a haststack in that case you know the perfect go move I to get a little meta I mean we we're talking about humans using these methods to create alpha fold but then there's a meta level which is humans using AI to explore the space of possible hypothesis How close are we to AI systems that can do genuine scientific reasoning not just pattern matching on data I think we're close Um we're working on these general systems like that like this We have this system called co-scientist and we have other algorithms like alpha evolve that can go a little bit beyond what the basic Gemini will do and obviously all the frontier labs are experimenting in this way I've yet to seen anything so far and we we all tinker with same things you know some math problems that are a little bit harder than IMO and so on I haven't seen anything yet um that is a true genuine you know massive discovery That's my personal opinion I think it's coming I think it may be related to uh this earlier this thing we discussed about creativity and and actually going on beyond the bounds of what's known So clearly that's just not pattern matching at that point because there is no pattern to match to and it's a bit more than extrapolation It's some kind of analogical reasoning and I don't think these systems have that or at least we're not using them in the in the right way to do that So the way I often say that in science is can it come up with a hypothesis that's really interesting not just solve one When I say just we're now talking about just like solving the Reedman hypothesis or something This would be obviously amazing or one of the Millennium Prize problems And maybe we're a couple of years out from doing that Um but I'd like to solve P equals NP That's that's my favorite one But can you but even harder than that would be to come up with a new set of of millennium prize problems that were regarded by top mathematicians to be as you know deep and meaningful and worthy of lifetime of study and effort to solve I think that's another level harder and uh we don't have um you know I still don't think we know how to do that I don't think it's it's magical though I do think these systems will be eventually be able to do that Maybe we're missing one or two things And then the way we would test that is you know I sometimes call it my Einstein test which is you know can you train a system with the knowledge of CFF of 1901 and then will it come up with you know what Einstein did in 1905 including special relativity you know his annabolis Can it can it do that right Uh and then I think we could run that test May maybe we should just run that test and keep seeing if that's possible And once that is then I think we're on the verge of these systems being able to invent something new truly novel So last last question for the people who are deeply technical in this room who want to work on something you know even close to the scale that what you've created with you it's one of the largest AI efforts in the world and you've been a pioneer for all these years So for that I think everyone in this room thanks you and the folks at deep mind very very deeply from the bottom of our hearts Thank you What's the thing that you know now about building at the frontier that you wish you'd known at 25 I think we covered some of it in terms of actually you you work out that going after hard problems and deep problems um is no more difficult in some ways than than going after a shallower simpler more superficial problem They're just differently difficult There's different things that are hard about each of those things But I think given life's very short and you you know you only have so much time and energy you might as well put your life force into something that will really make a a difference if you hadn't done it if you hadn't been there to push it So I would just think of it through that lens And then the other thing is if you're if you are and then we talked about deep tech and I love interdicciplinary uh work and I think that's going to be even more prevalent in the next few years in combinations of fields and uh uh finding the the the connections between those fields and it's going to be even easier to do that with AI and then the only other thing I would say is if you know if you have your depending on what your AGI timeline is you know mine's like 2030 or something like this then if you start off on a deep tech journey today usually that you're talking about a 10-year journey for for true deep tech in my opinion So then now you have to just consider AGI appearing in the middle of that journey So what does that mean It doesn't it's not bad necessarily but you have to take that into account right to will it be able to leverage it What will the AGI system do with it And it goes a little bit back to what you said earlier about Alpha Fold and general AI systems So one thing I can think see happening is Gemini Claude or one of these general systems making use of alpha fold like specialized systems as tools I don't think we're going to have it just in one giant brain because it will have too much regression in if I put all the proteins into you know Gemini that wouldn't make sense We don't need Gemini to do protein folding Going back to your information efficiency it would definitely affect its language skills or something like that right in a bad way So much better I think is to have really good general purpose tool usage models that will then maybe they could even train those specific tools but they would be in a separate uh uh system So I think that's kind of interesting to think through the implications of that and then what you might build today also physical things too like what kinds of factories would you build what sorts of um you know finance systems and so on So I just think you need to really take that seriously in in in on in on in on in on the one hand is like and imagine what that world would look like and then build something that would be useful if that comes in halfway through Deis Sabus everyone